Pdf effect of population growth on economic development. This exploration is conducted for both the major regions of the world and a global sample of 80 countries for. This is so because the relationship between population growth and economic development is intricate, complex and interacting. Onewayofthinkingabouttheeffectofthenumberofpeople abstractsfromthespatialdimensionofacountryandtherateofchange ofpopulation. Introduction population growth and economic development. Nov 21, 2018 one example of the impact of population on economic growth can be seen in detroit, where the local infrastructure suffered dramatically as people moved away. Bloom, david canning, and gunther fink abstract between 2000 and 2050, the share of the population aged 60 and over is projected to increase in every country in the world. Thus an unattached individual would be classified as a low income. This exploration is conducted for both the major regions of the world and a.
Looking ahead, lidcs may face continued economic headwinds in the form of mediocre growth in many trading partner countries. Pdf population and economic growth in developing countries. Malthusian scenario, according to which rapid population growth reduces economic welfare, is mistaken. In fact rapid population growth has been obstructing economic growth in developing countries like india where since 1951 population has been growing at a relatively high rate. Population growth and economic development of a country. Developing countries have made considerable progress in closing the gap with developed countries in terms of school attainment, but recent research has underscored the importance of cognitive skills for economic. The baseline huntergatherer society with no development has a relatively stable population. Bloom, david canning, and gunther fink nber working paper no. Factors affecting economic growth economic factors 1. The internet and economic growth in lessdeveloped countries. The impact of alternative measures of human capital can be seen in the long run growth models displayed in table 1.
Facultyworkingpapers collegeofcommerceandbusinessadministration universityofillinoisaturbanachampaign january11,1979 therelationshipbetweenpopulationandeconomic. Implications of population aging for economic growth david e. Worldwide, the largest absolute increases are yet to come. First, changes in the workingage share of the population impact income growth and savings, by changing the relative number of people in the economy that are able to work. Iussp regional conference on southeast asias population in a changing asian context held at bangkok. To substantially reduce poverty and meet the mdgs, however, low income and other developing countries need to grow faster and to rebuild buffers so as to guard against future shocks.
Thus an unattached individual would be classified as a lowincome. Broadbased growth of low income countries is possible only when public programmes supply profitable production opportunities for poor people. Apr 15, 2010 third, population growth and urbanization go together, and economic development is closely correlated with urbanization. A case study of indias prospects coale, ansley johnson, hoover, edgar malone, notestein, frank w.
Dec 16, 20 economic growth and development economic growth may be one aspect of economic development but it is not the same economic growth. Is population growth good or bad for economic development. Problems faced by countries with low economic growth. The city filed for bankruptcy in 20 and used the freedom from debt to reinvest in the local economy. Get a printable copy pdf file of the complete article. Does indias population growth have a positive effect on. How economic development can build community wealth. Foreign borrowing is consistent with development when. Pdf effect of population growth on economic development in. The results have been a sharp slowing in the rate of population growth among high income nations and a more modest slowing among low income nations. Growth, inequality, and poverty reduction in developing. Economic growth rebounds in poorer countries larry elliott.
We will then present two broad views on the links between population growth and economic development. Economic growth, spatial income inequality, and the of and in. When the economic growth is increasing, it will bring many advantages. A measure of the value of output of goods and services within a time period economic development. Based on data from the world bank and using a sample of fortythree developing.
The advantage of economic growth is improving the living standards. The relationship between population and economic growth in ldcs. What is the relationship between economic growth and. Developing countries have made considerable progress in closing the gap with developed countries in terms of school attainment, but recent research has underscored the importance of cognitive skills for economic growth. The worlds 48 least developed countries ldcs must transform their economies to break a vicious circle of underdevelopment, according to a report from unctad, the uns trade and development arm. Population and economic growth in developing countries minh quang dao professor of economics, eastern illinois university, 600 e. Abstract the precise relationship between population growth and per capita income has been. Population growth and economic development in developing and developed countries article pdf available in international journal of engineering and technology january 2018 with 3,829 reads. Many of these differences, as discussed below, have been driven by. They argue that it is possible that the interaction of economic growth with population dynamics can result in a poverty trap. One example of the impact of population on economic growth can be seen in detroit, where the local infrastructure suffered dramatically as people moved away.
Continued slowing in population growth at all income levels is suggested in figure 33. The focus on human capital as a driver of economic growth for developing countries has led to undue attention on school attainment. Knowledge about, and concerns for,the link between economic development and the environment goes of course back much further than the 1960s. When population grows faster than gnp, the standard of living of the people does not improve. Effects of population growth on the economic development of. Economic growth and development economic growth may be one aspect of economic development but it is not the same economic growth. How come a great number of countries face a relatively rapid growth in per capita gdp, while simultaneously suffering. To substantially reduce poverty and meet the mdgs, however, lowincome and other developing countries need to grow faster and to rebuild buffers so as to guard against future shocks.
Srinivasan, yale university much of the concern about the deleterious effect of a rapid growth of population on economic development is based largely on the view that either household fertility decisions are exogenous or, if endogenous, pervasive and significant externalities distort them. Economic growth may be defined in a number of ways. Economic growth is the increase of production, production capacity and all other components of an. On the positive side, an increasing population means an increase in the supply of labour a basic factor of.
The relationship between population and economic growth in. Population growth and economic development princeton. Economic growth in developing countries policies that softened the impact of the crisis and drove a relatively rapid return to precrisis growth rates. But it is possible that the effect of population growth on economic development has been exaggerated, or that no single generalization is justified for countries differing as widely in growth rates, densities, and income levels as do todays less developed areas. Effects of population growth on the economic development. Full text full text is available as a scanned copy of the original print version. Population growth, transaction efficiency and economic development in selected asian countries. In this case there is no tradeoff between growth and equity. Get a printable copy pdf file of the complete article 251k, or click on a page image below to browse page by page. Boserup 1981 classied countries into ve groups of increasing population density, and showed that highdensity countries have more. J14,j15,j21,j26,o1,o4 abstract the share of the population aged 60 and over is projected to increase in nearly every country in the world during 20052050. Through this study, it is defined as longrun increases in real per person income, where income is measured in terms of real gdp per capita. Because africa is landabundant yet lowincome, natural resource endowments. Often the growth and economic development are used as the same concept, but there are two different concepts.
All such investments generate economic growth which, at the same time, contributes directly to the reduction of poverty. Up to a point, population growth can be accommodated. Assuming population growth decreases economic growth one for one ie, additional people. Population growth and economic development in low income. Which type of theorist would argue that a lowincome society can develop if people give up their traditional ways and adopt modern economic institutions, technologies, and values. Apr 14, 2011 over the last half century, the economic performance of poor and middle income countries can be divided into three distinct periods.
The role of population on economic growth and development. The internet and economic growth 101 physical, technologies such as the internet. As national populations move toward replacementlevel fertilityan average of slightly more than two children per womanboth governments and families should improve their capacities to invest in the health of each child, the education of each student and the output of each. No country has ever reached high income levels with low urbanization. Relationship between population growth and economic development population tends to grow at a geometric rate, doubling every 30 to 40 years food supplies only expand at an arithmetic rate due to diminishing returns to land fixed factor hence, fall in per capita food production or per capita incomes to. Nevertheless, growth is projected to remain generally strong, with a number of the larger economies such as bangladesh and. Population growth and economic development in low income countries. Nevertheless, his essential insight that population growth constitutes a potential threat to economic development remained influential and informed international development policy agendas, especially in the 1950s and 1960sa period marked by unprecedentedly rapid rates of population growth in many developing countries. Economic growth rebounds in poorer countries larry. Financial development, economic growth and poverty level. The results have been a sharp slowing in the rate of population growth among highincome nations and a more modest slowing among lowincome nations. Demography, ageing population, economic growth introduction. This paper traces chinas growth story and the contributing role of education and training. These are all the countries for which a full set of growth data are available for the four decades.
Correlations between population growth and economic growth by. The results for india have direct implications for all low income, primarily agrarian areas entering a program of economic development. Family planning programs work best in countries where. This suggests that economic growth is a weak channel connecting financial development and poverty level in all these ssa countries. Slower population growth would permit per capita income to rise moree rapidly in nearly all developing countries. Feb 01, 2016 relationship between population growth and economic development population tends to grow at a geometric rate, doubling every 30 to 40 years food supplies only expand at an arithmetic rate due to diminishing returns to land fixed factor hence, fall in per capita food production or per capita incomes to. But they do imply that one should not assert that population growth decreases per capita economic growth in lessdeveloped countries. The extensive quantitative population projections show the importance of the growth rate itself and of changes in age distribution in addition to population size. It is therefore suggested that policy makers should redesign feasible financial sector. Population growth increases density and, together with ruralurban migration, creates higher urban agglomeration. Since the 1960s, economists have taken very different positions on the implications of population dynamics for economic growth. Over the last half century, the economic performance of poor and middleincome countries can be divided into three distinct periods.
Implications of population aging for economic growth. In lowincome countries, the social rate of return generally is highest for investment in. Population growth and economic development in lowincome. There was robust growth in the two decades from 1960 to 1980. If the less developed regions could raise their current per capita income growth rates by onethird, it would reduce their per cotta income doubling time from somewhat over 25 yeam to 18 years. The economic growth is an increase in gross domestic product gdp by measure the amount of income and products that occurring over some time period. Can rapid population growth be good for economic development.
Population growth and economic development in lowincome countries. The effects of population growth on economic development. Population growth and economic development sciencedirect. The precise relationship between population growth and per capita income has been inconclusive in the literature and the nexus has been found not clearly explain the determinants of rapid population growth in developing countries that lacks fertility control and management framework. This forms the rationale for this study to access the trend of factors that influence rapid. Feb 19, 2015 there is a demographic model that explains this. Tools for building community wealth, democracy collaborative discusses 21 tactics different groups use to ensure economic development really benefits residents.
Poor countries must undergo economic transformation to. Population growth helps the process of development in certain ways and hampers it in certain other ways. Opportunities and constraints a paper prepared for the african development bank. The limitations of simple correlation for inferring causal linkages between population growth and per capita income growth are. This paper examines the economic effects of the demographic transition in developing countries. The growth rates for 43 african countries and 56 other developing countries, smoothed of yeartoyear variations, are shown in figure 1. On the impact of demographic change on growth, savings. Third, population growth and urbanization go together, and economic development is closely correlated with urbanization.
1523 165 1045 569 1336 852 1583 1202 672 456 1472 441 362 1588 1228 455 1422 1299 139 1334 469 220 1227 887 13 1173 888 1502 582 734 505 961 228 1347 1481 521 1488 1023 350 299 1326 819 1294 1107